As I’ve already said, all of my predictions about publishing come from observing other industries that have recently gone digital (in some cases, unwillingly).
From that, I’ve projected things like the demise of chain bookstores; their failure slowed but not stopped by stubborn publishers clinging to DRM in a vain effort to make digital books work like paper books, and as a result making ebooks not more ‘secure’, but less attractive for early adoption by the casual consumers who (understandably) prefer to actually own the shit they buy.
It’s just fucking math, guys.
In 2001, we got the iPod. Three million iPods were sold in two and a half years.
Nine years later, the number of employees of music stores has dropped from 80,000 people to 20,000.
Three million iPods were sold in two and a half years.
Three million Kindles were sold in two years.
Three million iPads were sold in eighty days.
Three million iPhones were sold in three weeks.
Just do the fucking math.